Wednesday, December 17, 2014

Debate on the Falling Russian Ruble


This is an object lesson to Russian President Putin. You do not operate what is essentially the economy of a developing country and attempt, at the same time, to delude yourself and the world into thinking that you are a Super Power. The political economy of the great pretense will hurt you badly.
The only problem, especially under conditions of an open trading system, is that the collateral damage to you might ripple out in unpredictable ways and even lead to a major international military crisis.
Fortunately, nuclear weapons, and in particular intercontinental ballistic missiles have reduced the probability of world wars by at least 95 percent, which means that most of the damage, even in a worst case scenario will be suffered by Russia.
Russia and President Putin have to abandon both their gamble in Ukraine, and their dreams of resurrecting a version of the old Soviet Union. They should begin to design strategies, to give incentives to Europe and the United States, to admit Russia into an expanded security system in Europe, with the remaining problems created by the collapse of the Soviet Union, fully solved.
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The rouble crashes to new record lows in Tuesday trading, hitting 79 Rubles to the dollar, despite a dramatic rise in Russian interest rates.
WWW.BBC.COM
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    Debo Awosika-Olumo Fubara excellent write up. Those hailing Putin and scolding Obama when Putin made his stupid bravado can now see who is laughing now.
    14 hrs · Unlike · 1
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    Ray Megwa This is just the beginning of things to hit Russia and Putin.There is this proverb in my place which says"when you cook for a crowd they will eat all and want more,but when a crowd cooks for you not only that you cannot finish it but it will end up choking you"If the present situation in Russia is not horridly managed will bring down the Russian bear.Putin has found himself where the west has cooked for him and I bet you the food will choke him.Going to China will not save him.China wants to be in the good books of the west and the world in general therefore China will not do anything to upset some of his biggest customers moreover US debts are in the hands of Chinese government.So it will be stupid of China to take sides knowing fully well the consequences of a US government default on its debts to China an its impact on the economic growth and well being of its people.Putin and Russia should learn some diplomatic lessons from China on how to go about handling diplomatic issues.(Hong kong and Taiwan are good case study examples for macho man Putin and Russia).The era of intimidation is gone and gone for good.Mr.Putin take note!
    1 hr · Like
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    Fubara David-West With respect to Russia, there are important question for those Nigerians who think, quite unwisely, that Nigeria can afford to play some kind of a balancing game, between Russia and the United States. Do you think that Russia needs Nigeria in the management of its international relations? Remember, that the Russian economy is as dependent on the export of petrochemical products as Nigeria. Russia would, of course, be glad to have a new market for its military hardware, but what would Nigeria export to Russia? Does it make any strategic sense, to tie Nigeria into a constricted Euro-Asian economy, even as open markets define the international structure of politics and economics?
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Thursday, October 23, 2014

On ISIS: What the United States Must Not Do

 
ISIS: What Obama and the U. S.Must Not Do
Whatever President Obama and the United States are thinking about doing to face the threat posed by ISIS, they must make sure that they do not turn this into a contest that the U. S. must win.
The states facing the ISIS threat directly, must bear most of the burden of ensuring that ISIS does not succeed. The U. N. Security Council should also be given the responsibility to deal with the threat to international peace and security, which ISIS represents. This is exactly the kind of a threat that the U. N. Security Council is designed to handle.
By presuming violently to redraw the territorial boundaries of member states of the United Nations, ISIS represents the exact threat that the United Nations and the U. N. Security Council are set up to tackle. They must live up to their obligations. The United States should not take over the function and the obligation of the United Nations, in this case.
President Obama's current tactics and strategy are just perfect, for dealing with this situation.
We might note that most of the states directly threatened by ISIS, have the population, and the money to fund a combined, or a set of unilateral national military operations against ISIS.  
Here is a sample of the relevant statistics from the World Bank, on some of the states in question--
Saudi Arabia: Population 28.83 million; GDP $745.3 billion (2013 figures)
Kuwait: Population 3.369 million (2013 figures); GDP $183.2 billion (2012 figures)
Qatar: Population 2.169 million; GDP $202.5 billion (2013 figures)
Iraq: Population 33.42 million; GDP $222.9 billion (2013 figures)
Syria: Population 22.85; GDP $73.67 billion (2012 figures)
There is no compelling reason, why the United States should take over responsibility for the security of these states, none of which pays taxes to the U.S. treasury.  They must either put up the forces that they need, to defend their territories and their people or face the dire consequences.  
The constant argument that unless the United States takes over the security of these kinds of states, another 9/11-type attack on the United States might be expected, does not have much credence, if critically analyzed. For instance, there was never such an attack on the United States before 2001.  
The only other attack on the United States, which might be considered to be similar was the attack on Washington, by the British Army in 1814.  During that attack, the British army set fire to the White House.  Thus, the 9/11 attacks by Al Qaida were a rare event, which should not be used, to gauge the possibility or probability of future events.
Indeed, with all of the actions and programs that the United States has put in place since the 9/11 attacks, the probability that a similar attack against the U.S. homeland will be successfully launched is now very small.  
Future threats and attacks of a similar scale are more likely to be launched against American interests overseas.  Even if such attacks are successfully carried out, they will probably not have the same kinds of significant effects on the U.S. homeland, which the 9/11 attacks had.  
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